at-the-water-cooler.com

Rudy is not the front runner, he is one of those other four who have delegates.

The pattern we saw in South Carolina was when supporters of Rudy picked somebody else they picked McCain, Maybe if Romney did not leave South Carolina to Nevada where he won a solid 51% — things may have been different. We wont ever know because now McCain goes into Florida in a stronger position than what he had going into South Carolina; and Florida may be the start of a rise in his support going straight into Super Tuesday.

For Rudy it is up to Florida, if he can make it anywhere he needs to make it first in Florida; it is up to you Florida, Florida.

According to Survey USA 4 candidates have been in a virtue tie in the state, for some voters — Will voters pick one of the underdogs, if so which one.

The apparent dynamics are Rudy / McCain split the same support and Mitt / Huckabee split the same support (although supporters may be less inclined to switch between the two). McCain appears to be on the way to defeating Rudy and getting his supporters.

[update]
Huckabee sinks in the polls, Romney rises (now leading). McCain and Rudy are tied for 2nd.
[/update]

[update 1-28-2008]
McCain and Romney tied in low 30s for first, Huckabee and Rudy tied in low teens for 3rd place.
[update]

Popularity: 22% [?]

As noted on California Yankee - Romney targeted Nevada and did not spend resources in South Carolina. Polster’s polling graphs show him gaining ground as Fred was losing it … given Rush, and Ann Coulter’s virtue endorsements for either Fred or Romney as the true non-religious conservatives this pattern makes sense.

However the pattern starts changing about a month ago: The polling data, the dots on the graph, reflect McCain going from 10% a month ago to now 30% and Fred going from 20% to 10%. While Rudy decline into single digits started slowly since back at his peak in July of 2007. While Mitt one month ago was in the low twenties or high teens and today is in the low twenties or high teens, and not getting any better while …

… in Nevada, polls really don’t give a good report of how the vote will turn out and Romney could win by double digits; it would be bad for him to have lost Nevada; The polls have shown him clearly winning Nevada since October for whatever that is worth — but what is the price of a loss in South Carolina?

1. As shown on Hugh Hewitt blog McCain is 2nd in popular votes but needs delegates; McCain now is getting exposer on a national level as the front runner in National polls; and South Carolina has delegates 24 of them and they are winner take all! That would put McCain as a clearly viable candidate on Super Tuesday.
2. Huckabee could win and give him the clear 2nd place going into Super Tuesday.
3. Either way Romney has a bigger fight after a loss in South Carolina.

If he won in South Carolina and Nevada he may have been able to take a clear majority of delegates before Super Tuesday. There has been less changes for the primary in South Carolina than Nevada so the South Carolina polls should be far closer to the actual result than the Nevada polls.

Will Mitt’s decision to skip South Carolina and focus on winning Nevada cost him the nomination? That is a definite maybe, after McCain wins Florida — to do it he needs the momentum from South Carolina — Then McCain is positioned to get the Rudy vote.

As Wall Street Journal puts it:

The muddled Republican race for president may grow a tad clearer as South Carolina votes Saturday, with both Sen. John McCain and Mike Huckabee competing to build on early wins and Fred Thompson needing a strong showing in his home region to survive.

Yet not a word about Mitt who.

<Coming soon>

Rudy’s underdog position, Florida judge and jury, it is now about survival for Rudy.

</coming soon>

Popularity: 20% [?]