Buzz on NH polling failure still abuzz on the internet.
Posted by: Wayne in 2008, Due DiligenceI don’t think much, or make much, of it; I’ve already reconciled that polling a few hundred people to make a guess about how a few hundred thousand people is not a perfect science. A large number of factors need to be considered in calling one person who you believe will represent the ideas of a thousand people. Even if we just consider how the 400 people believe they will vote they are free to change their minds.
Given the nature of the voting process one person may decide who are they going to vote for based on the lessor of two evils; that is to say they did not like Hillary and did not have a reason to dislike Obama. They get a reason not to like Obama so they don’t vote for either; Hillary’s negative ads may have done this to a few of the 400 people who where polled or a few thousand people who voted.
Being scientific for a moment — if the methods used by pollsters was 100% correct, then two polls by different pollsters would show the same results; The reality is that different pollsters come out with different numbers even when done at the same time.
Polls only give an indication, they don’t show what the actual results will be because of the very nature of having one person represent 100,000 voters: or two people represent 200,000 voters. Speaking to only two of the wrong people throws the results off by less than the margin of victory.
Popularity: 31% [?]
