There really is no way to get a good number as to delegates at this point … take California Proportional Primary for example:
A mandatory 15 percent threshold is required in order for a presidential contender to be allocated National Convention delegates at either the congressional district or statewide level - with undecided in the 10 +-7% range, it is not yet possible to know which candidates remain “viable” as Iowa would say. So all that really can be determined is how many delegates have been earned without declaring some candidates as not viable.
Then there is Iowa - exactly how does one read the minds of participants (in any caucus for that matter) when they will be asked to realign their support if they supported a non-viable contender:
All supporters of such “non-viable” presidential contenders will then be required to join in the support of presidential contenders who have remained “viable”.
I don’t believe they would like the idea of joining other contenders groups based on a proportional amount. If they wanted to do that they may as well just convert to a simple primary system.
Looking at just earned delegates: About as far as that could be taken is Clinton may have a majority, clearly more than any other single candidate.
I am actually hoping it will be interesting with no clear winners on feb 5th 2008; presenting lots of opportunities to post on this blog. The Republican primary is shaping up to be interesting.
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